Services / Planning & Forecasting
Planning & Forecasting. Budgets people use. Forecasts that hold up.
A good forecast is not a prediction. It is a tool for making decisions early, while there is still time to act. We build driver-based budgets and forecasts that connect your operations to your financial results, and reporting that shows clearly where the business stands against plan.
When this helps
- The budget is set once a year and rarely consulted again
- Cash surprises arrive with little warning
- Management meetings debate the numbers rather than the decisions
- Growth plans are not linked to hiring, capital or funding needs
What is included
The scope is agreed around the decisions in front of you. A typical engagement draws on the following.
Driver-based budget
A budget built from the operational drivers of revenue and cost, not last year plus a percentage.
Rolling forecast
A twelve to eighteen-month view, updated monthly as actual results arrive.
Cash flow forecast
A thirteen-week view of cash for day-to-day control, and a longer view for planning.
Scenario planning
Base, downside and upside cases, so that responses are agreed before they are needed.
Variance analysis
A clear explanation of what differed from plan and what it means.
Management reporting
A concise monthly report designed for the leadership team.
Deliverables
- Annual budget model
- Annually
- Rolling forecast update
- Monthly
- Thirteen-week cash forecast
- Weekly
- Variance commentary
- Monthly
- Scenario analysis
- As required
How it works
A clear sequence, so that you see value early and nothing is built that your team cannot own.
Understand
Map the drivers of revenue, margin and cost with the people who manage them.
Build
Construct the budget and forecast model, reconciled to your accounting records.
Embed
Set a monthly rhythm for updating the forecast and reviewing results.
Refine
Improve accuracy and detail as the forecast proves its value.
Questions
What software do you use?
Most models are built in Excel or Google Sheets so that your team can own them. Where the business warrants it, we advise on dedicated planning tools.
How accurate will the forecast be?
The aim is a forecast that is reliable enough to act on, and that improves each month as assumptions are tested against results.
Can this be a one-off project?
Yes. A budget and forecast model can be delivered as a project, with an optional monthly retainer to maintain it.
Other services
Most clients combine two or more services as their needs develop.
Discuss planning & forecasting. Thirty minutes, without obligation.
Tell us where the business is headed and what stands in the way. Or write directly to alberto.salas@blackbearcorp.com.
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